(This article is originally carried in the IMPACT mag anniversary edition.)
Print: Survival is the key
Print will survive in India. At least for the next ten years. And the vernacular press, even longer. But many of the recently launched newspapers and mags will continue to bleed, yet most will linger around, hoping for the best.
What the publishers aren’t understanding, or are unwilling to accept, and I have no reason to believe better sense will prevail in 2020, is this: The technology revolution of the recent times will have completely taken the wind out of the sails of print, unless some serious changes are executed in the content, form and style, starting NOW.
Let’s take the tough Mumbai English newspaper market as an example. The Times of India is doing a great job. So far. That it will steadily lose readers amongst the younger segment of the populace is something they will have to come to terms with. And find quick solutions. Right now, it’s far from getting there. The No 1 newspaper is still stuck to the traditional ways. What’s even more intriguing is the attitude of the other newspapers like the HT and the DNA. They continue to play the role of Minnie-me to the Times. Nearly 90% of the news content is the same across all the morning dailies. Even the Page 3 party pics are the same! What are these publishers waiting for? Are they still living in denial about the tech revolution? Do they still see only the TOI as their rival in the coming years? If so, they are on a self-destruct mission. When the TOI loses readers, it will lose them to the Internet and the cell phone, and NOT to rival newspapers. That’s the hard truth.
Logically therefore, as readership plummets, newspaper publishers will face severe times in terms of revenues in the coming years. Yet, due to their obstinacy, they will refuse to re-invent. The question is: What is stopping these people from taking risks and experimenting big? Or, are they not able to read the writing on the wall? What is preventing them from changing the rules of the game? Here’s my theory: One, it’s gotta to do with the proprietors who aren’t visionaries themselves. And are content to live by the day. And two, most of the senior editors are from the old-world school of editing. They are set in their ways of presenting stories, and are refusing to adapt to the challenges of the future. And some of them try floozy tricks like putting out ‘bulletin board’ news on their front pages. This ‘cool invention’ keeps their proprietors happy, but does zilch for the newspaper’s future. Short, crispy stories is not the answer… websites do that job perfectly well, thank you very much.
Ditto with magazines. Almost all of them seem to be stuck in time. Same old gloss, same old boring formats, same old style of cutting stories, same old everything. And when you do see a change, it’s almost always cosmetic.
This lack of vision and revenue pressure will result in some appalling developments. In order to make whatever little money they can, print publications will be forced to carry paid news. Political leaders and business managers will drive their revenue agendas with planted stories. We already got a whiff of that in the last Lok Sabha elections. And at the time, it was mainly the vernac papers and mags that sold out. This will happen with the English press too. Salaries have to be paid, no?
Net net: I think there will be a bloody mess in the newspaper and magazine industry in the next ten years. Unless they totally re-invent themselves, unless the proprietors become brave, take tough decisions (like getting rid of the traditional editors… no chance of that happening), the future looks quite frightening. What I do know is this: I am NOT investing in any shares of print companies. In fact, the few I had, I offloaded enmasse last year.
One favourite optimistic line put out by the old worlders is that print will survive because you can’t take your computer to the potty. Even that theory got busted two years ago. Both my nephews, under 30, merrily crap over tweets.
Ads in print:
The quality of print ads has been dead for a long time, as Piyush Pandey went on to hire his TV-obsessed ‘clones’, and all these heartland guys are now running various agencies. As for the commerce, since ads will run camouflaged as news, why would marketers spend money on real ads? Ergo: Not much hope for print advertising at all! Unless of course the media barons re-invent fast.
Television: Sensational future
Television is gonna rock for the next ten years at least. No question about that. Despite the digital boom. And essentially because the family dinner TV viewing habit of the Indians will not end for the next two generations at least. India already boasts of the highest number of news channels, and more will add to the clutter in the coming years. The reason: every businessman and his granny wants to own a news channel. It’s a new high, a new drug, after coke snorting became infra dig. The ultimate status symbol. It doesn’t matter, of course, if these people don’t understand the news business or journalism at all, that’s a party-pooper discussion.
So let’s discuss the news channels first. While there will be the odd crusading story aka Jessica Lal, the channels will continue to go from blunder to blunder, and learn nothing significant from their journalistic goof-ups. Because of the massive competition in the coming years, news breaks at all costs will be the order of the day, rules of good journalism be damned. And yes, the bhoot-pret stories will continue to rule on the Hindi news channels. If at all, the stories will get increasingly corny. A typical story in 2020: The well of the Lok Sabha is haunted by General Dyer’s bhoot. And that’s what makes our netas lose their shirts, saris and minds out there. Breaking news, that! Enjoy, bugger!
Arnab, Barkha, Rajdeep & the merry gang will roll on with their colourful chat shows. And so will all-season experts like Suhel Seth, Prahlad Kakkar and Pooja Bedi. Being seen every night on TV is a power drug… politicians bow to you, movie stars send out birthday greetings, kids at traffic signals ask for autographs, and first class upgrades at airport check-ins happen without asking. Who would delegate such power and pelf? No chance! The youngsters in the news rooms will continue to be what they are today: nobodies. So the same faces will rule, and by rotation, win the ‘TV journo of the year’ award, right till 2020.
Entertainment channels will bloom too. Perhaps there will be forty odd Hindi GECs vying for your attention each night, with their own versions of family dramas. The current rage of village and mohalla stories will fade out in a few years. And will make way for KJO sort of tales. Don’t be surprised if the top soap in 2020 is about an NRI family settled in Switzerland, and their lives and times. Sex and sleaze levels will go through the roof. The new saas will be seen to be enjoying a ‘Sex and the City’ lifestyle, instead of burning her dear bahu down. Seismic changes in ten years, people!
As the GECs push the sex envelope, the so-called ‘music channels’ (they play everything but music anyways) will get alarmed. So their shows will go berserk in sleaze programming. The 2020 reality gig in these channels will involve simulated ‘wardrobe malfunction’ events on the ramp. Audiences will vote in to decide who dropped more, and that model will be declared the winner.
But the biggest threat to GECs will not really be the internet or other entertainment channels or the sleaze channels. That will come from the Hindi news channels. This is already happening, but I think in 2020, a substantial number of housewives will be found watching rivetting soaps on Star News rather than on Star Plus. In fact, I think Rupert Murdoch will be left questioning the necessity of Star Plus.
Fraud reality shows will go on as well. The next level will involve conducting totally insane things. Adventures like surviving in a house or a jungle will be passé. Singing and dancing competitions will be history. Poisonous cobras will be unleashed into people’s homes (starting with Rakhi Sawant’s apartment), and their horrors recorded. Programming heads will only hire horror story writers. Live exorcism rituals will be another super reality show idea. The Ramsays will make a come-back.
Ads on TV:
Will continue to thrive. In fact, TV will continue to be the ad showcase of the best India has to offer. Not that digital media won’t attract ads. The main reason being that all of the top Indian agency heads are only TV savvy. And they just don’t understand or appreciate the power of the new media. And not one chief creative director is planning to retire in a hurry.
Radio: RIP
Absolutely no future at all for this medium! With the age-old demon of the licensing fee Raj still to be exorcised, and I see very little hope of that happening any time soon, there will be very few private FM stations on air in the next ten years. Many of them are already in the ICU in terms of financial cancer. Which is a good thing, if you ask me. I quit listening to FM Radio many years ago. Ever since the cackling cacklers fashionably called RJs took over the air waves, ever since they starting belting out non-stop asinine gyaan while chatting live with moronic callers. And ever since they proudly began doling out Himmeshbhai’s nasal twang… in short, ever since they stopped playing the effin’ music.
One good thing that happened is that as FM dumbed out and went massy, music downloads from the internet went free and easy. Many of us switched back to the good ol’ CD player in our cars. Now Radio FM in India essentially caters to the lorry, taxi, auto and bus drivers… and servants, tailors, dhobis, plumbers, electricians and maalis… not really a prized target market for advertisers. Okay, am exaggerating a bit. There are enough loaded suckers for this sort of audio trash in our metros… the same dudes who spit out shiny red amrit from their shiny red Honda Citys at the traffic signals. (No wonder one station is called ‘Red FM’.) That ensures some amount of ad revenues for the radio barons. So that’s cool.
But what flummoxes the mind is this: all the FM stations are basically clones of each other, and this makes very little sense. You can switch from one station to the other and will tell no difference at all. The same mindless cackling, the same Himmeshbhai, the same stupid queries from callers… the torture goes on relentlessly. It’s actually the same story as is with rest of the Indian media. Saas-bahu soaps work on TV, and all channels produce clones. Village stories work on TV, and all channels produce clones. Page 3 pics work in newspaper supplements and all dailies produce clones. The same old herd mentality. Not one radio station has tried to introduce seriously off-beat programming. This is the other big reason only those few barons with very deep pockets will survive in 2020. Funny, no? Your survival is dependent on you doing something original, and yet you operate your studio as a photo copy machine centre!
Given the above, the only way forward in the survival path for FM radio in India is for the I&B Ministry to allow the stations to broadcast news. Hard news. That will change the rules of the game, as many of us would be tempted to log in while in the car, Himmeshbhai notwithstanding. That way radio will have the power to beat television news channels at day time, and could result in a rise in listenership numbers, and consequently ad revenues. Of course, even then we’ll hear the same news across all stations (what to do… we are like that only), but at least the interest in the medium will see a revival. God only knows if and when that will happen.
And if it doesn’t, the reverse countdown for the stations has already begun. Passion for the medium can only take the proprietors thus far, as Tariq Ansari of Mid Day might have realised by now. Where passion ends, finance managers take over. A pity, really. To see such a promising, vibrant medium on its way to the graveyard. Mainly because of incompetent, idealess programming heads. And an apathetic government.
PS: Of course, the Vivid Bharati will continue to chug along, churning out high mediocrity, as it has done for all these decades. They won’t shut shop. We pay for their bills, you see. Just as we do for the other dearies called Doordarshan and Air India.
Ads on radio
There will be advertisers wanting to target the paan spitter. So radio should garner some business. But the ads will continue to be as dumb and life-less as ever. That’s because agency creative directors see very little glory in this medium. Twenty years ago, radio scripts were palmed off to the hapless trainee copywriter. It’s still pretty much the same. Piyush Pandey would much rather return to client servicing than write creative for radio. Even if the advertiser is Fevicol.
Digital: Is the future
There are enough tech wizards in this country to give you solid gyaan on this medium. And am sure some of the worthies have done that in these pages. I am pretty tech challenged, and am still unaware of what GPRS stands for. So let me only state the obvious truth: 2020 will see the digital media take over our lives (and this includes smaller towns and villages) in a big way. For those under forty, this will be the medium for shopping, getting news, bill payments, networking, working, entertainment, travel… even locating shady massage parlours. The cell phone, more than the computer, will be THE medium most advertisers will target. Not to speak of the Kindle, the Ipad… and god knows what new high tech gizmos that will arrive into our lives in ten years.
Here’s what I suspect will be my lifestyle in 2020, that’s if I am still alive (the jerks have installed a cancer-spewing cell phone tower atop my residential building): Morning: Check facebook updates, reply to comments, chat with the pals, etc. Check breaking news on the SMS box. Over a cup of tea, read the news and opinion columns on the phone, and select sites and stories that I want to surf. This makes me my own editor-in-chief of news and views (all the high and mighty editors of newspapers and TV channels to please take note… I will NOT need you in my life any more!). On the potty, it’s tweeting time. Or other cool networking sites that would have arrived in the next few years.
Travel to work in the car, listen to music on the phone, pay off some bills, get some work done on e-mail, etc. Then in the evening, on the way back home, finalise place for dinner, make seat reservations, leaf through a best seller, chat on facebook, watch a flick, catch a sports match… all on the phone, of course. You can now extend this diagram and it will work nicely in any activity in life. PS: I may watch a little TV at home in the night… and that too because the family wants to sit together and ‘bond’. Or, if there’s been a terror attack and I want to capture the ‘drama’ on large screen. But that’s about it.
As you would have noticed, there will be very little place for the traditional media in my life. And although I am no Dr Vijay Mallya or Mukesh Ambani, I happen to be the target market for many a consumer products. And the advertisers know how to reach me. Which is why the rest of the media needs to be terribly worried.
The question is, are they worried? Well, not really. As I have discussed elsewhere in this IMPACT anniversary issue, owners of print and TV media are busy going about their routine lives. As if this was 1984. As if nothing much is happening in the digital space. The order of the day is to begin re-inventing like RIGHT NOW. And be prepared before 2020 arrives like a digital tsunami. I think the first step should be to give the marching orders to all the old-thinking, fossilised, have-been editors and programming heads. People who are used to the conservative ways, old dogs who will not learn new tricks. They need to be phased out. And either young, tech-savvy visionary content people get promoted from within the existing staff pool, or the proprietors need to look elsewhere to find the right people. No, this isn’t going to be simple. Editors usually tend to be addicted to power and perks, and won’t give up their kursis very easily. But it has to happen, there is no other option. There’s no point in waking up in 2020, by which time it might be too late.
Ads on Digital media:
The same issues confront marketers and creative directors. Most of them still seem obsessed with TV commercials. Yes, the TVCs will go on, but how many of the agency creatives understand the digital space? Is there enough talent in the industry to take on the medium? Are there enough training programmes being put into place to improve tech knowledge levels? Are the National Creative Directors consciously hiring talent specific to the digital business? I don’t think so. I think the uncles and aunties are still busy hiring clones of each other.
Out of home: Boom time!
“I think that I shall never see,
A billboard lovely as a tree;
Indeed, unless the billboards fall,
I'll never see a tree at all.” - Ogden Nash
Well, Ogden Nash could well have been predicting the Mumbai skyline, come 2020. We won’t see a single tree. If they haven’t been all razed to the ground because of the real estate construction, they most certainly would be to accommodate that yet another horrendous eye-sore called the hoarding.
No, ‘out of home’ isn’t really a content medium, so to speak. Unless you include all those sexy cut-outs of voluptuous babes on certain hoardings. Those sure provide some amount of stickiness (pun unintended!). Or, you could include those giant cut-outs of Mayawati and the Thackerays (mostly illegal), showing you the finger, which makes your day on the way to work. Still, it’s an important medium of the future, in term of advertising.
There are many issues plaguing the hoarding ‘industry’. Well, actually it’s more of a cottage industry right now. Where, as much as 30% of the business is allegedly illegal. And therefore price under-cutting is rampant, contractors charge what they fancy, and of course, there is zero accountability.
And yet, this is one medium that will go on boomingly. And so will the rest of the ‘out of home’ stuff. Hoardings, bill boards, glow signs, bus panels, car stickers, airport kiosks, blah blah… they will all rule. They are of particular use for brands that target localised consumers. And for those that lack the budgets of the mass media. The only threat to the outdoor media could be from the weeping-heart environmentalists. Who, if they have their say, can get a ban ordered on hoardings in the city. Unlikely to happen, that. Too much money in the outdoor media, and as we know, money talks in this nation. And the netas need the medium to sell their faces (it’s free for them.. they just deface what they want, but that’s another story).
For the future, what one should ideally expect are fantastic innovations in this medium. Not just in terms of presentations, but in terms of interactivity and personalisation of messages. The key is going to be customer interface in this space. Again, since I am tech challenged, I can’t predict these innovations, but here’s the sort of stuff you can look forward to. Don’t laugh. You would have laughed if ten years ago I told you a union minister would lose his job because of something floozy called Twitter.
KS Condom vending machines at railway stations: Not only will a sexy girl invite you to make a purchase, she will also help you choose the size… between small and extra, extra large, as she digitally, er, measures you up.
Kingfisher Beer level signage in bar loos: As you get busying peeing, instead of the stupid graffiti you are currently rammed with, a digital meter will tell you exactly how much alcohol is there in your blood, and how much more you can safely consume, depending on your body mass.
Stardust Stripping starlet hoardings: A digital hoarding at Marine Drive will feature Sherlyn Chopra removing her clothes, one by one. Till she’s down to nothing. Of course, this will result in accidents, the MNS will smash some window panes, some PILs will be fired, the CM would promise to take action. And of course nothing will happen. Money WILL talk in outdoor in circa 2020 as well.
Sugar Free Touch screen kiosks at unlimited thali joints: These will tell you what to eat, how much to eat, and most importantly, when to stop eating. Of course, you can show your middle finger to the touch screen.
Maruti 3D billboards at mall parking lots: As in 3D sci-fi movies, a virtual usher will leap out at you, and direct you to a vacant parking slot.
Ritu Kumar Digital translites at boutique shops: These will facilitate payments by just the flash of the credit card. Of course, some joints will clean you out of all your balance, but that’s another story.
Ads in the ‘out of home’ media:
There will be serious pressure on ad agencies to create stunning outdoor campaigns, in keeping with the tech revolution. Once again, like digital creatives, the current crop of tech challenged creative directors will struggle. Net Net: In the last ad industry revolution in 1984, one saw a large migration of Hindi speaking dudes into the ad world. The next big wave will be the mass migration of nerdy techies from the South of India into the ad industry.
Events & PR: Hot, hot, hot!
Strange though it may sound, and I am not joking, but after digital, not television, but PR & Events will be the most promising media vehicles in 2020. That’s where a lot of action and moolah will be. Ten years from now, ad writers won’t be wasting their time writing prints ads (they can’t write them anyways, haha), they will be crafting PR scripts and churning out event plans. Here’s why:
Let’s first look at events. Already, many brands and people (and this includes Bollywood movies, celebrity parties, brand launches and book launches) run events to generate enormous word of mouth publicity for themselves. Events also help build a brand, if done correctly and suitably. In fact, the ad and media events this magazine regularly organises is a good case in point. But it’s the free media blast that events trigger, which is the big turn on.
Which is why, because of the costly mass media rates, we will see events playing a massive publicity role in the years to come. They will feature as a key medium in a media planner’s (read buyer’s… planners are extinct in the media bazaar these days) mix. And Bollywood A-listers will be in an even bigger demand than they already are, as the best way to get media attention is to invite the movie stars over for an event. Even if these beauties have no idea what the event is all about, even if they have no connection with the brand being launched/celebrated, who gives a rat’s arse for such minor details? And if that’s not possible, even Rakhi Sawant and Sherlyn Chopra will be cool items to have around.
So, in 2020, I see an event happening for all sorts of marketing activities. Opening up a paan shop at Lokhandwala Complex? Hold an event! Starting out a new brothel in 1st Pasta Lane? Hold an event! A mochi launching a new outlet at Connaught Place? Hold an event! Buying a new Maruti Alto? Hold an event, bugger! Party regulars will go mad trying to decide which events to grace and which to skip. Tough times ahead for folks like Ashok Salian, Queenie Dhody, Kailash Surendranath and Alyque Padamsee… the party regulars. In fact, I suspect in 2020, a burial or a cremation will also be treated as a major event by some brand managers.
Next: Public Relations. Er, since when did PR become a ‘medium’? Well, it is now a formidable medium, and by 2020, it will be hotter than all the traditional media put together! The reason: again, as the rest of the media gets increasingly costly, marketers will realise the important of free publicity. Why pay for a full page ad in a daily or for a 30 second commercial on TV when you can pay a fixed fee to a PR company, whose pretty staffers will then ensure you get free coverage across the nation? Simple business sense. The only thing one hopes for is that the PR firms evolve with the times too, and start using brains rather than brawn. And go beyond the dull press releases and client ‘entertainment’ tricks. Already, the filmy PR is learning new tricks. Film reporters are often called during issue closing hours with sensational ‘stories’ about the movie or its stars or its directors… all lies basically, but it ensures free coverage. But the PR industry will have to go beyond these juvenile stunts, and become truly professional for a chance to make the most of the impending boom. PR firms that refuse to evolve will fall by the wayside.
Which then brings me to the sad, bad issue of ‘paid news’. The last nail in the coffin of good journalism. Yes, it’s much cheaper and easier than paid ads. Media Net is just a small trailer of things to come. Okay, I shall stick my neck out and make a dire prediction: In 2020, every single media brand’s content will be up for sale. That much faith I have in the current crop of Indian media barons. Jai Hind!
Ads for Events & PR
Ad agency personnel need to roll up their sleeves, and start treating Events & PR as a PRIMARY medium. They will need to come up with deadly strategies and creatives for executing events and engineering PR scandals, if they hope to retain their clients. Balki, Prasoon… start dating the PR chicks from tonight for some inspiration!
